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Majority of AI Researchers Say Tech Industry Is Pouring Billions Into a Dead End

2 months ago
Founded in 1979, the Association for the Advancement of AI is an international scientific society. Recently 25 of its AI researchers surveyed 475 respondents in the AAAI community about "the trajectory of AI research" — and their results were surprising. Futurism calls the results "a resounding rebuff to the tech industry's long-preferred method of achieving AI gains" — namely, adding more hardware: You can only throw so much money at a problem. This, more or less, is the line being taken by AI researchers in a recent survey. Asked whether "scaling up" current AI approaches could lead to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), or a general purpose AI that matches or surpasses human cognition, an overwhelming 76 percent of respondents said it was "unlikely" or "very unlikely" to succeed... "The vast investments in scaling, unaccompanied by any comparable efforts to understand what was going on, always seemed to me to be misplaced," Stuart Russel, a computer scientist at UC Berkeley who helped organize the report, told New Scientist. "I think that, about a year ago, it started to become obvious to everyone that the benefits of scaling in the conventional sense had plateaued...." In November last year, reports indicated that OpenAI researchers discovered that the upcoming version of its GPT large language model displayed significantly less improvement, and in some cases, no improvements at all than previous versions did over their predecessors. In December, Google CEO Sundar Pichai went on the record as saying that easy AI gains were "over" — but confidently asserted that there was no reason the industry couldn't "just keep scaling up." Cheaper, more efficient approaches are being explored. OpenAI has used a method known as test-time compute with its latest models, in which the AI spends more time to "think" before selecting the most promising solution. That achieved a performance boost that would've otherwise taken mountains of scaling to replicate, researchers claimed. But this approach is "unlikely to be a silver bullet," Arvind Narayanan, a computer scientist at Princeton University, told New Scientist.

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EditorDavid

'Unaware and Uncertain': Report Finds Widespread Unfamiliarity With 2027's EU Cyber Resilience Requirements

2 months ago
Two "groundbreaking research reports" on open source security were announced this week by the Linux Foundation in partnership with the Open Source Security Foundation (OpenSSF) and Linux Foundation Europe. The reports specifically address the EU's Cyber Resilience Act (or CRA) and "highlight knowledge gaps and best practices for CRA compliance." "Unaware and Uncertain: The Stark Realities of CRA-Readiness in Open Source" includes a survey which found that when it comes to CRA requirements, 62% of respondents were either "not familiar at all" (36%) or "slightly familiar" (26%) — while 51% weren't sure about its deadlines. ("Only 28% correctly identified 2027 as the target year for full compliance," according to one infographic, which adds that CRA "is expected to drive a 6% average price increase, though 53% of manufacturers are still assessing pricing impacts.") Manufacturers, who bear primary responsibility, lack readiness — many [46%] passively rely on upstream security fixes, and only a small portion produce Software Bills of Materials (SBOMs). The report recommends that manufacturers take a more active role in open source security, that more funding and legal support is needed to support security practices, and that clear regulatory guidance is essential to prevent unintended negative impacts on open source development. The research also provides "an in-depth analysis of how open collaboration can strengthen software security and innovation across global markets," with another report that "examines how three Linux Foundation projects are meeting the CRA's minimum compliance requirements" and "provides insight on the elements needed to ensure leadership in cybersecurity best practices." (It also includes CRA-related resources.) "These two reports offer actionable conclusions for open source stakeholders to ready themselves for 2027, when the CRA comes into force," according to a Linux Foundation reserach executive cited in the announcement. "We hope that these reports catalyze higher levels of collaboration across the open source community."

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EditorDavid