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Nobel Prize-Winning Physicist Predicts Humankind Won't Survive Another 50 Years

3 weeks 1 day ago
Live Science spoke with physicist David Gross, who today received the $3 million "Special Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics". He was part of a trio that won the 2004 physics Nobel prize for research that helped complete the Standard Model of particle physics. But when asked if physics will reach a unified theory of the fundamental forces of nature within 50 years, Gross has a surprising answer. "Currently, I spend part of my time trying to tell people... that the chances of you living 50 [more] years are very small." Cold War estimates for a 1% chance of nuclear war each year seem low, Gross says. "The chances are more likely 2%. So that's a 1-in-50 chance every year." David Gross: The expected lifetime, in the case of 2% [per year], is about 35 years. [The expected lifetime is the average time it would take to have had a nuclear war by then. It is calculated using similar equations as those used to determine the "half-life" of a radioactive material.] Live Science: So what do you suggest as remedies to lower that risk? Gross: We had something called the Nobel Laureate Assembly for reducing the risk of nuclear war in Chicago last year. There are steps, which are easy to take — for nations, I mean. For example, talk to each other. In the last 10 years, there are no treaties anymore. We're entering an incredible arms race. We have three super nuclear powers. People are talking about using nuclear weapons; there's a major war going on in the middle of Europe; we're bombing Iran; India and Pakistan almost went to war. OK, so that's increased the chance [of nuclear war]. I would really like to have a solid estimate — it might be more, and I think I'm being conservative — but a 2% estimate [of nuclear war] in today's crazy world. Live Science: Do you think we'll ever get to a place where we get rid of nuclear weapons? Gross: We're not recommending that. That's idealistic, but yes, I hope so. Because if you don't, there's always some risk an AI 100 years from now [could launch nuclear weapons], but chances of [humanity] living, with this estimate, 100 years, is very small, and living 200 years is infinitesimal. So [the answer to] Fermi's question of "Where are the civilizations, all the intelligent organisms around the galaxy, and why don't they talk to us?" is that they've killed themselves... There are now nine nuclear powers. Even three is infinitely more complicated than two. The agreements, the norms between countries, are all falling apart. Weapons are getting crazier. Automation, and perhaps even AI, will be in control of those instruments pretty soon... It's going to be very hard to resist making AI make decisions because it acts so fast. He points out that with the threat of climate change, "people have done something," even though "It's a much harder argument to make than about nuclear weapons. "We made them; we can stop them." Thanks to hwstar (Slashdot reader #35,834) for sharing the article.

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EditorDavid

Is the Iran War Driving a Surge of Interest in Electric Cars?

3 weeks 1 day ago
In October and through November, America's EV sales reached their lowest point since 2022 after government subsidies expired, remembers Time. "But first-quarter data for 2026 shows that used EV sales were 12% higher than the same time last year and 17% higher than the previous quarter. "One factor likely helping push buyers toward these cars is high gas prices, which recently topped $4.00 a gallon for the first time in four years," they write — but it's not just in the U.S. Instead, they argue the U.S.-Iran conflict "is driving a global surge of interest in electric vehicles..." In the U.K., electric car sales reached a record high, with 86,120 vehicles sold in March... The French online used-car retailer Aramisauto reported its share of EV sales nearly doubled from February 16 to March 9, rising to 12.7% from 6.5%, while sales of fueled models dropped to 28% of sales from 34%, and sales of diesel models dropped to 10% from 14%. Germany's largest online car market, mobile.de, told Reuters that the share of EV searches on its website has tripled since the start of March — from 12% to 36%, with car dealers receiving 66% more enquiries for used EVs than in February. South Korea reported that registrations for electric vehicles more than doubled in March compared to the prior year, due in part to rising fuel prices and government subsidies... In New Zealand, more than 1,000 EVs were registered in the week that ended on March 22, close to double the week before, making it the country's biggest week for electric vehicle registrations since the end of 2023, according to the country's Transport Minister, Chris Bishop. In America, Bloomberg also reports 605 high-speed EV charging stations switched on in just the first three months of 2025, "a 34% increase over the year-earlier period," according to their analysis of federal data. A data platform focused on EV infrastructure tells Bloomberg that speedier and more reliable chargers are convincing more drivers to go electric and use public plugs.

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EditorDavid