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How Badly Did ChatGPT and Copilot Fail to Predict the Winners of the Kentucky Derby?

2 weeks 2 days ago
In 2016, an online "swarm intelligence" platform stunned horse-racing fans by making a correct prediction for the Kentucky Derby — naming all four top finishers in order. (But the next year its predictions weren't even close, with TechRepublic suggesting 2016's race just had an unusual cluster of obvious picks.) Since then it's become almost a tradition — asking AI to predict the winning horses each year, then see how close it came. So before today's race, a horse named "Journalism" was given the best odds of winning by professional bookmakers — but could AI make a better prediction? USA Today reports: The USA TODAY Network asked Microsoft Copilot AI to simulate the order of finish for the 2025 Kentucky Derby field based on the latest, odds, predictions and race factors on Thursday, May 1. Journalism came out on top in its projection. The AI-generated response cited Journalism's favorable post position (No. 8), which has produced the second-most Kentucky Derby winners and a four-race winning streak that includes last month's Santa Anita Derby. ChatGPT also picked the exact same horse, according to FanDuel. But in fact, the winning horse turned out to be "Sovereignty" (a horse Copilot predicted would finish second). Meanwhile Copilot's pick for first place ("Journalism") finished in second. But after that Copilot's picks were way off... Copilot's pick for third place was a horse named Rodriguez — which hours later was scratched from the race altogether. (And the next day Copilot's pick for 10th place was also scratched.) Copilot's pick for fourth place was "Sandman" — who finished in 18th place. Copilot's pick for fifth place was "Burnham Square" — who finished in 11th place. Copilot's pick for sixth place was "Luxor Cafe" — who finished in 10th place Copilot's pick for seventh place was "Render Judgment" — who finished in 16th place... An online racing publication also asked "a trained AI LLM tool" for their predictions, and received a wildly uneven prediction: Burnham Square (finished 11th) Journalism (finished 2nd) Sandman (finished 18th) Tiztastic (finished 15th) Baeza (finished 3rd)

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EditorDavid

Dying Satellites Can Drive Climate Change and Ozone Depletion, Study Finds

2 weeks 2 days ago
There's 9,000 satellites circling the earth, the Guardian points out, with projections over over 60,000 by 2040. But "A new study shows that the emissions from expired satellites, as they fall to Earth and burn up, will be significant in future years, with implications for ozone hole recovery and climate." Most old satellites are disposed of by reducing their altitude and letting them burn up as they fall, releasing pollution into Earth's atmosphere such as aerosolised aluminium. To understand the impact of these growing emissions from expired satellites, researchers simulated the effects associated with an annual release of 10,000 tonnes of aluminium oxide by 2040 (the amount estimated to be released from disposal of 3,000 satellites a year, assuming a fleet of 60,000 satellites). The results, which are published in Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, show that the re-entry material will accumulate at high latitudes and could result in temperature anomalies of up to 1.5C in the middle to upper atmosphere, reduction of wind speeds and ozone depletion, which could jeopardise ozone hole recovery. "At present, impacts on the middle and the upper atmosphere are small," the researchers write, "but have the potential to increase." They argue that "to shed light upon the potential climate impacts of increased satellite reentry," an "expanded effort, including observations and modeling is needed." Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader AmiMoJo for sharing the article.

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EditorDavid